**Below-average incomes lead to a significant decline in household purchasing power **
Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are FEWS NET remote monitoring countries. In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. The analysis presented in this report is based on various field information provided by local partners, such as trader organizations, WFP, and OCHA. FEWS NET also participates in an informal working group to exchange information and discuss analysis related to the potential food security impacts of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.
Key Messages
• The number of Ebola cases in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea continues to rise. However, based on currently available information, previous projections of an exponential increase in Ebola cases in the coming months are looking increasingly unlikely. As a result, FEWS NET has updated its analyses using a scenario of a lower, but still substantial, increase in the number of Ebola cases by late January 2015.
• Households with family members infected by Ebola will face below-average harvests and incomes, as well as difficult physical access to food due to household-level quarantines and social stigma. Between November 2014 and March 2015, directly-impacted households not receiving humanitarian assistance will likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity.
• For poor, market-dependent households in areas worst affected by Ebola, below-average incomes and market disruptions have atypically reduced household purchasing power. Currently, these households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) but will likely decline into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between January and March 2015. In zones with fewer Ebola cases, market-dependent households will likely remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during this time period.
• Due to the ongoing rice harvest, farming households will meet the majority of their staple food needs through their own production in the short-term and will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through December. However, below-average incomes from crop sales will likely limit expenditures on essential nonfood needs and contribute to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity between January and March 2015, particularly once household food stocks begin to deplete.