Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are FEWS NET remote monitoring countries. In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. The analysis presented in this report is based on various field information provided by local partners, such as trader organizations, WFP, and OCHA. FEWS NET also participates in an informal working group to exchange information and discuss analysis related to the potential food security impacts of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. This group, which includes FEWS NET, the USAID-BEST project, the FANTA project, and WFP, has provided valuable information and support for this analysis.
Key Messages
More than 3,600 Ebola cases have been reported or are suspected in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, with the number of cases expected to rise over the next six months. Official and unofficial restrictions on population movements in affected countries, combined with heightened levels of fear, have led many individuals to avoid leaving their homes or immediate communities. This situation has diminished food availability and income-earning opportunities in some places.
Due to ongoing harvests, which are expected to be average to above-average, rural farming households will meet the majority of their staple food needs through their own production in the short-term, as they do during a typical year. Market disruptions will have the greatest impact on market-dependent populations, which are mostly concentrated in the urban centers at this time of year.
Between September 2014 and March 2015, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity or higher is expected for at least 20 percent of the population in areas worst affected by Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia (Figure 1), with households with ill family members and the urban poor likely to face reductions in the quality and quantity of their diets. A smaller proportion of the population will face illness and market disruptions in worst-affected areas of Guinea and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected there.
Market impacts in West Africa beyond the Ebola-affected countries will remain limited to reduced flows of livestock, labor, and other foods (ex. palm oil, vegetables) between Guinea and neighboring southern Senegal and southwestern Mali. No impacts on food security outcomes are expected for these countries.
